Anti-abortion groups in Ohio think they have the formula to break their movement’s nationwide losing streak.
Early voting is already underway ahead of a November ballot referendum, which if passed would enshrine reproductive freedom in the state constitution and allow abortion up to conception.
Anti-abortion leaders and GOP politicians acknowledge the campaign against the ballot measure is a major test of whether conservatives can prevail on the issue. Abortion rights have won in every state that voted on the issue since the fall of Roe v. Wade.
In a Republican-led state that twice voted for former President Trump, GOP politicians are framing their opposition as a moderating force in the debate.
“Here we are in Midwestern Ohio, a commonsense conservative state where we may, in just a period of several weeks, have the most extreme abortion law in the country. I think we are all united in making sure that doesn’t happen,” Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) said at a recent “get out the vote” rally held at the state Republican headquarters.
LaRose is running in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate to challenge incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).
“We have to shed our Republican label and go out and talk to everyday Ohioans irrespective of what party and even what position they have on this issue of abortion,” state Sen. Matt Dolan (R), another U.S. Senate candidate, said at the rally.
Dolan said the messaging focus should highlight the issue of late-term abortions.
“We have to get uncomfortable in Ohio over the next 30 days and have these uncomfortable conversations with people and talk about what Issue 1 will do,” he said.
Both sides of the Issue 1 campaign are buckling down for the final three weeks: running TV and digital ads, knocking on doors, making phone calls, and encouraging people to vote early.
The Ohio Republican Party, in a partnership with the Republican National Committee, launched the “Bank Your Vote” initiative to “maximize” conservative turnout.
“The best way to defend innocent life, protect Ohio’s workers, and make your voice heard is to Bank Your “NO” vote on Issues 1 and 2 before Election Day,” state GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou said in a statement.
Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and first lady Fran DeWine appeared in an anti-Issue 1 ad, sponsored by Protect Women Ohio, the coalition leading the anti-Issue 1 campaign.
“Whether you’re pro-life or pro-choice, Issue 1 is just not right for Ohio,” DeWine said in the ad.
Abortion rights have been a winning issue recently, even in conservative Ohio, when voters soundly defeated a ballot initiative in August that was largely viewed as a proxy for abortion.
Nearly 58 percent of Ohio voters said they would back the abortion-rights amendment, including 81 percent of Democrats and 32 percent of Republicans, according to a July USA TODAY Network Ohio/Suffolk University poll.
A Scripps News/YouGov survey of Ohians conducted in June found that 42 percent agreed with restrictions on abortion to some degree, compared to 36 percent who disagreed.
The ballot measure in Ohio is modeled after the successful Proposition 3 campaign that passed in Michigan last year. It would guarantee the right to “make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions,” including abortion, contraception, miscarriage care and fertility treatment.
It would allow lawmakers to restrict abortion after the point of viability, except in cases of threats to the life or the health of the patient, but require “the least restrictive means” in regulating the procedure.
Ohio is the only state that will vote on abortion this fall, making it the current epicenter of the reproductive-rights fight.
If the measure fails, it would mark the first time anti-abortion groups have been successful at the ballot since Roe v. Wade was overturned, and leaders said they will aim to use a similar playbook in other states in 2024, including Arizona, Florida and Missouri.
“All eyes are on Ohio, I would say, because, of course, as Ohio goes, many other states may potentially go in the following year,” said Jeanne Mancini, president of the March for Life, who helped organize the group’s march in Ohio earlier this month.
Abortion-rights advocates have seen a string of victories in red and blue states over the past year. Voters rejected anti-abortion measures in red states like Kansas, Kentucky and Montana, and expanded protections in Vermont, Michigan and California.
Despite the string of losses, opponents of the amendment in Ohio said their message isn’t different from the anti-abortion groups in the other states, and it’s been consistent since the ballot measure was first proposed.
They have focused much of their messaging on the issue of parental rights and on late-term abortions.
“We don’t have to, you know, fine tune our messaging because when people in the state of Ohio learn that this takes away parental rights and consent, whether they’re pro life or pro choice, they’re rejecting it,” said Peter Range, CEO of Ohio Right to Life and a board member of Protect Women Ohio.
But one of the biggest differences between Ohio and the other states, Range said, is time.
“Dobbs was released and then a few months later, you know, Michigan was voting on Prop. 3. We’ve had more time to kind of work on the ground, hitting doors, putting up commercials, talking about parental rights from the very beginning,” Range said.
Range said the anti-abortion coalitions are using the time to expand their message beyond the conservative base voters to independents and even people who describe themselves as pro-choice.
Similarly, the ballot measure’s supporters said there isn’t a need to change or even hone their message in the final weeks of the campaign.
“The stakes couldn’t be higher. Ohio has an extreme abortion ban on the books with no exception for rape and incest or even when a woman’s life is at risk. Issue 1 is Ohio voters’ opportunity to remove that extreme abortion ban. It’s just that simple,” said Gabriel Mann, spokesman for Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights (OURR).
In the aftermath of the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, Ohio passed a six-week abortion ban without any exceptions for rape, incest or health and safety of the mother.
The law was on the books for about three months before it was blocked by a lower court last year, allowing providers to continue providing abortions up to 22 weeks. However, the state Supreme Court heard oral arguments last month about lifting the injunction, which could happen at any time.
OURR launched an ad last month featuring a couple named Beth and Kyle who were forced to go out of state to find abortion care, despite having a nonviable pregnancy.
“We’re not taking anything for granted. But you know, what we have is the popular opinion of the voters. People do not want the government to be making these decisions for them and their family,” Mann said.
