New findings from a Trump-aligned pollster released Wednesday show a majority of voters want Congress to extend enhanced ObamaCare tax credits and would be less likely to vote for a candidate who lets those tax credits expire.
The poll from John McLaughlin, commissioned by the conservative group Americans for a Balanced Budget, highlights the political importance of the tax credits ahead of the midterm elections and the peril facing Republicans who oppose an extension.
The poll found voters blame Democrats slightly more than Republicans for the ongoing government shutdown, but a majority want both parties to compromise to reopen the government and extend the enhanced tax credits.
A 51 percent majority polled across battleground GOP districts said they are more likely to vote for “a Democratic candidate who fought to preserve and protect the Enhanced Premium Healthcare Tax Credits” rather than “a Republican candidate who refused … and wanted them to expire.”
However, if Republicans attempt to extend the credits, the poll found that voters would reward them. A 56 percent majority said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who voted to preserve the tax credits.
“This poll makes it clear: preserving the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits isn’t just good policy, it’s smart politics for Republicans looking to defend their majority in the 2026 midterms,” Dee Stewart, president of Americans for a Balanced Budget, said in a statement.
“Extending these credits is about protecting working Americans and small business owners who pay their own way and keeping coverage affordable,” Stewart said.
Most Americans who purchase health insurance through Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans are eligible for tax credits to make their premiums more affordable. Congress made the subsidies more generous during the pandemic, but unless Congress extends them again, they are set to revert to the original, lower levels.
But time is running out to shield customers from sticker shock. Insurers are anticipating that the enhanced subsidies will expire and are pricing their coverage accordingly.
Consumers with 2026 ACA marketplace plans are already seeing substantially higher premiums as state and federal “window shopping” allows people to see the costs of their plans ahead of the Nov. 1 start of open enrollment.
If that were to happen, premium payments for subsidized enrollees would more than double on average, according to health policy research group KFF. Consumers are likely to see double-digit premium increases on average.
The enhanced ObamaCare subsidies are the crux of the ongoing shutdown, which has reached 22 days with no end in sight. Democrats want assurances from Republicans on extending the subsidies before they support a government funding bill.
GOP leaders have been adamant that any extension of the enhanced ObamaCare subsidies should be done separately from the government shutdown fight, though many hard-line conservatives argue the subsidies shouldn’t be extended at all.
The survey was conducted in the Cook Political Report’s eight Republican “toss-up” battleground congressional districts among 1,000 likely voters between October 15-19, 2025. Interviews were divided equally among the districts in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.
